Pisa 3-3 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 38 as Pisa welcome Sudtirol to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pisa — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sudtirol's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pisa at 1.80 PPG versus Sudtirol's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Pisa have won 2, Sudtirol 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 62% versus Sudtirol 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 54% | Sudtirol 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.60 xG and Sudtirol 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.132 / defence 0.916 | Sudtirol attack 1.113 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.122. Data: 74 Pisa games / 74 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 47% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 26%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Sudtirol 3.85. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 47% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Pisa 1.60 / Sudtirol 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.132 / def 0.916 | Sudtirol attack 1.113 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Pisa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sudtirol xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Sudtirol kick off?
Pisa vs Sudtirol kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Sudtirol?
Pisa 3 - 3 Sudtirol.
Where is Pisa vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Sudtirol part of?
Pisa vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 47% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pisa and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sudtirol?
Record (5 meetings): Pisa 2W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 2W.
What form are Pisa and Sudtirol in?
Pisa (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pisa's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.64
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.75
1.14
Sudtirol xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
5%
19.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Pisa and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Pisa and 1.14 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa's recent record stands at 32W 20D 22L from 74 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 24W 19D 31L across 74 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.57 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 18W 11D 7L from 36 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 10W 8D 18L across 36 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.26 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 32W 20D 22L in their last 74 games (1.57 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 24W 19D 31L in their last 74 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Sudtirol away?
Pisa's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.81 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Sudtirol runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Sudtirol have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Pisa 3-3 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 69%, Sudtirol 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Pisa) and 56% (Sudtirol). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Pisa's games and 56% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Pisa's matches and 56% of Sudtirol's.
Do Pisa and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Sudtirol finished level at 3-3 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.60 xG and Sudtirol 1.14 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sudtirol outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.13 / defence 0.92 against Sudtirol attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 47% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 26%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 54%, Sudtirol 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.57 PPG, Sudtirol 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.