Pisa 3-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Sampdoria travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sampdoria — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sampdoria have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Pisa have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Sampdoria in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Pisa, 0 for Sampdoria and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Sampdoria trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 70% and Sampdoria 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Sampdoria 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.81 xG and Sampdoria 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.282 / defence 0.978 | Sampdoria attack 1.432 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.058. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sampdoria have an above-average attack strength of 1.432 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Pisa games / 50 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 29%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sampdoria 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 80% | Sampdoria 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Pisa 1.81 / Sampdoria 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.282 / def 0.978 | Sampdoria attack 1.432 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Pisa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sampdoria xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Sampdoria kick off?
Pisa vs Sampdoria kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Pisa 3 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Pisa vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Sampdoria part of?
Pisa vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 43% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Pisa and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sampdoria?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 2W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Pisa and Sampdoria in?
Pisa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Sampdoria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.28) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.69
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Pisa xG
Total xG
3.30
1.48
Sampdoria xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
5%
20.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Pisa and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Pisa and 1.48 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 18W 17D 15L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria's form line: 19W 12D 19L from 50 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.42 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (10W 10D 5L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 10W 7D 8L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.34 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Sampdoria in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 18W 17D 15L in their last 50 games (1.42 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 19W 12D 19L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Sampdoria away?
Pisa's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.60 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Sampdoria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when Pisa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pisa's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Pisa
0
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 4, Sampdoria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Sampdoria 0-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Sampdoria?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pisa at 76%, Sampdoria at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Pisa and 56% for Sampdoria. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Pisa's games and 68% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Pisa's matches and 56% of Sampdoria's.
Do Pisa and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pisa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Sampdoria 3-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.81 xG and Sampdoria 1.48 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sampdoria landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Sampdoria attack 1.43 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 43% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 29%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 56%, Sampdoria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Sampdoria's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.42 PPG, Sampdoria 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.