Pisa 0-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 5 as Pisa welcome Reggina to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggina have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggina away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Reggina's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Pisa's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pisa, 1 for Reggina and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Reggina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Reggina trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Reggina 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 36% | Reggina 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.20 xG and Reggina 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.937 / defence 1.061 | Reggina attack 0.984 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.057. Data: 42 Pisa games / 42 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 38% | Draw 28% | Reggina 34%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Reggina 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Reggina (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Reggina 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 38% | Draw 28% | Reggina 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Pisa 1.20 / Reggina 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.937 / def 1.061 | Reggina attack 0.984 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Pisa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Reggina xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Reggina kick off?
Pisa vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Reggina?
Pisa 0 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Pisa vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Reggina part of?
Pisa vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 38% chance of winning, Reggina a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pisa and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Reggina?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Reggina 1W.
What form are Pisa and Reggina in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Reggina (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.94x the league average against Reggina's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reggina's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.53
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.30
1.10
Reggina xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pisa and 1.10 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 15W 14D 13L from 42 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 17L across 42 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.40 PPG, Reggina on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 9W 9D 3L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggina's away record stands at 5W 7D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 0.98 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Reggina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Reggina in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 15W 14D 13L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Reggina have gone 16W 9D 17L in their last 42 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Reggina away?
Pisa's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.71 PPG; Reggina away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Pisa or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Reggina in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa's record when hosting Reggina specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pisa
0
Draws
2
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Reggina have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Reggina 0-2 Pisa.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 52%, Reggina 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Pisa and 24% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Reggina in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Pisa's recent matches and 33% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Pisa's recent games and 24% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Reggina tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Reggina in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggina defy the odds to beat Pisa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.20 xG and Reggina 1.10 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.94 / defence 1.06 against Reggina attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 38% | Draw 28% | Reggina 34%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Reggina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 36%, Reggina 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggina's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.40 PPG, Reggina 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.