Pisa 2-2 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Reggiana travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana away from home this season: 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Reggiana — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pisa have won 0, Reggiana 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Reggiana trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 58% versus Reggiana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 37% | Reggiana 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.38 xG and Reggiana 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.878 / defence 0.934 | Reggiana attack 1.019 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.160. Reggiana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Pisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Pisa games / 19 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 29%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Reggiana 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Reggiana (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 80% | Reggiana 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Pisa 1.38 / Reggiana 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.878 / def 0.934 | Reggiana attack 1.019 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Reggiana xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Reggiana kick off?
Pisa vs Reggiana kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Reggiana?
Pisa 2 - 2 Reggiana.
Where is Pisa vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Reggiana part of?
Pisa vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 42% chance of winning, Reggiana a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pisa and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Reggiana?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 1 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Pisa and Reggiana in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Reggiana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pisa's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
42%
2.39
29%
3.43
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.48
1.10
Reggiana xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Pisa and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Pisa and 1.10 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 7D 7L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.16 PPG, Reggiana on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pisa's home form reads 2W 4D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.11 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 5W 8D 6L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.11 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Pisa or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Reggiana in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pisa's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Pisa
2
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Reggiana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Reggiana 0-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Reggiana?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 78%, Reggiana 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pisa) and 67% (Reggiana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Reggiana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Pisa's games and 44% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Pisa's matches and 67% of Reggiana's.
Do Pisa and Reggiana tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Reggiana share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Reggiana finished level at 2-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.38 xG and Reggiana 1.10 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Reggiana outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Reggiana attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 42% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 29%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 37%, Reggiana 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggiana's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.16 PPG, Reggiana 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.