Pisa 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Parma (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Parma have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Parma are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Pisa 0W, Parma 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 53% versus Parma 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 36% | Parma 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.13 xG and Parma 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.861 / defence 1.029 | Parma attack 1.252 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.108. Parma have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Pisa games / 45 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 30% | Draw 26% | Parma 44%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Parma 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Parma at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 40% | Parma 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 30% | Draw 26% | Parma 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Pisa 1.13 / Parma 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.861 / def 1.029 | Parma attack 1.252 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Parma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Parma xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Parma kick off?
Pisa vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Parma?
Pisa 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Pisa vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Parma part of?
Pisa vs Parma is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 30% chance of winning, Parma a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Pisa and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Parma?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 2 | Parma 0W.
What form are Pisa and Parma in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Parma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.86) and Parma's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.25x) against Pisa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
30%
3.35
26%
3.81
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.56
1.43
Parma xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
7%
13.97
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Pisa and 1.43 for Parma, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 15D 14L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.36 PPG from 45 outings (14W 19D 12L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Pisa against 1.36 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 9W 9D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (7W 9D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.36 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Parma in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 16W 15D 14L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Parma have gone 14W 19D 12L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Parma away?
Pisa's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.64 PPG; Parma away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Pisa or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Parma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Pisa
3
Draws
4
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Parma?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Parma have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Parma 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Parma 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Pisa) and 54% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Parma in 36%; Parma in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pisa's recent matches and 54% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Pisa's recent games and 54% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Parma tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Parma in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pisa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Parma finished level at 0-0 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.13 xG and Parma 1.43 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pisa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Parma attack 1.25 / defence 1.05, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 30% | Draw 26% | Parma 44%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 36%, Parma 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Parma's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.40 PPG, Parma 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.