Pisa 2-2 Como – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pisa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Como meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Como (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Como have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Como have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pisa lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Como half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 51% versus Como 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 33% | Como 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.46 xG and Como 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.060 / defence 0.930 | Como attack 1.124 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.074. Data: 39 Pisa games / 39 Como games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 30% | Como 27%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Como 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Como 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 43% | Draw 30% | Como 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Pisa 1.46 / Como 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.060 / def 0.930 | Como attack 1.124 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Pisa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Como xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Como kick off?
Pisa vs Como kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Como?
Pisa 2 - 2 Como.
Where is Pisa vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Como part of?
Pisa vs Como is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 43% chance of winning, Como a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Como?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pisa and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Como?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 2W | Draws 0 | Como 0W.
What form are Pisa and Como in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Como (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pisa's attack at 1.06x the league average against Como's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Como's attack (1.12x) against Pisa's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
43%
2.32
30%
3.36
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.58
1.12
Como xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Pisa and 1.12 for Como, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa's recent record stands at 15W 13D 11L from 39 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Como, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 13L across 39 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Como, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Pisa against 1.23 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 9W 8D 2L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Como's away record stands at 6W 7D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.28 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 67%.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Como
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Como in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 15W 13D 11L in their last 39 games (1.49 PPG), while Como have gone 11W 15D 13L in their last 39 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Como away?
Pisa's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.84 PPG; Como away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Pisa or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Como in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Como have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won 5-0 on 22 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Pisa
3
Draws
3
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Como?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Como have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Como last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Como 5-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 53%, Como 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Pisa) and 53% (Como).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Pisa's games and 74% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Pisa's recent games and 53% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Como tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Como in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Como share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Como finished level at 2-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.46 xG and Como 1.12 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Como outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against Como attack 1.12 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 43% | Draw 30% | Como 27%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 33%, Como 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.49 PPG, Como 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.