Pisa vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pisa at 35%, yet in-form Carrarese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Pisa (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 2W 0D 8L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carrarese have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Carrarese are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pisa lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Pisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 42% versus Carrarese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Carrarese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.14 xG and Carrarese 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.807 / defence 1.046 | Carrarese attack 0.924 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 2 Pisa games / 40 Carrarese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pisa 35% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 34%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Carrarese 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Carrarese (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 60% | Carrarese 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 35% | Draw 31% | Carrarese 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Pisa 1.14 / Carrarese 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.807 / def 1.046 | Carrarese attack 0.924 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Pisa (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Carrarese xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Carrarese kick off?
Pisa vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
Where is Pisa vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Carrarese part of?
Pisa vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 35% chance of winning, Carrarese a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pisa and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Pisa and Carrarese in?
Pisa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.81x the league average against Carrarese's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.92x) against Pisa's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
35%
2.89
31%
3.24
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.28
1.14
Carrarese xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Pisa and 1.14 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Pisa have picked up 0.52 PPG on a 3W 12D 25L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese's form line: 10W 15D 15L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Carrarese are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pisa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pisa have posted 0.65 PPG from 20 outings (3W 4D 13L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 3W 7D 10L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 3W 12D 25L in their last 40 games (0.52 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 15L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Carrarese away?
Carrarese's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 0.65 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Pisa or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Carrarese in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pisa
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2025, when Pisa 2-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 35%, Carrarese 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Pisa) and 55% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Pisa's recent matches and 65% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pisa's recent games and 55% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Carrarese tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.