Pisa 0-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Cagliari at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Cagliari away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pisa 1.50 PPG, Cagliari 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pisa, 0 for Cagliari and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Pisa in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 49% versus Cagliari 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 35% | Cagliari 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.26 xG and Cagliari 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.135 / defence 0.964 | Cagliari attack 0.955 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 0.989. Data: 69 Pisa games / 31 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 44% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 27%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Cagliari 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 60% | Cagliari 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 44% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Pisa 1.26 / Cagliari 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.135 / def 0.964 | Cagliari attack 0.955 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.150 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Pisa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cagliari xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cagliari kick off?
Pisa vs Cagliari kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cagliari?
Pisa 0 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Pisa vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cagliari part of?
Pisa vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 44% chance of winning, Cagliari a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pisa and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 1 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Pisa and Cagliari in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Cagliari (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.14) and Cagliari's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.47
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.17
0.91
Cagliari xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Pisa and 0.91 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pisa's recent record stands at 26W 25D 18L from 69 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 17W 25D 27L across 69 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.49 PPG, Cagliari on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 16W 12D 6L from 34 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 5W 14D 15L across 34 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.06 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 26W 25D 18L in their last 69 games (1.49 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 17W 25D 27L in their last 69 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cagliari away?
Pisa's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.76 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Pisa or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cagliari in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Cagliari runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pisa's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pisa
3
Draws
0
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cagliari?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Cagliari have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Pisa 3-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cagliari?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 53%, Cagliari 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Pisa) and 41% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cagliari in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Pisa's recent matches and 47% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Pisa's recent games and 41% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Cagliari tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pisa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 32, as Pisa and Cagliari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.26 xG and Cagliari 0.91 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pisa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.14 / defence 0.96 against Cagliari attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 44% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 27%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 35%, Cagliari 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.49 PPG, Cagliari 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.