Perugia 0-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Perugia take on Como.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Como travel to Stadio Renato Curi to take on Perugia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Perugia — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Perugia's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Curi this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Como stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Como's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Perugia have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Perugia have won 0, Como 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–4 with Como winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Perugia in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Como in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 50% versus Como 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 30% | Como 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 1.14 xG and Como 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.767 / defence 0.986 | Como attack 0.890 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.054. Perugia's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing Perugia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Perugia games / 30 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 37% | Draw 37% | Como 26%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.70 | Draw 2.70 | Como 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Perugia 40% | Como 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 37% | Draw 37% | Como 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Perugia 1.14 / Como 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.767 / def 0.986 | Como attack 0.890 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Como xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Como kick off?
Perugia vs Como kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Como?
Perugia 0 - 1 Como.
Where is Perugia vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Como part of?
Perugia vs Como is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 37% chance of winning, Como a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Como?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Perugia and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Como?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 0 | Como 1W.
What form are Perugia and Como in?
Perugia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Como (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Perugia's attack rating (0.77) and Como's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Perugia's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.71
37%
2.68
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Perugia xG
Total xG
2.06
0.93
Como xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Perugia and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Perugia and 0.93 for Como, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Perugia come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 13D 6L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.27 PPG from 30 outings (8W 14D 8L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Perugia on 1.53 PPG, Como on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Perugia's home form reads 4W 7D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (4W 7D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Perugia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.20 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Como in 67%.
Defensively: Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Como in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 11W 13D 6L in their last 30 games (1.53 PPG), while Como have gone 8W 14D 8L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Como away?
Perugia's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.27 PPG; Como away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Perugia or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Como in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Como won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Perugia's record when hosting Como specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Perugia
1
Draws
3
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Perugia have won 0, Como have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Como last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2023, when Perugia 0-0 Como.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 47%, Como 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 13% for Perugia and 47% for Como.
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Perugia's games and 73% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Perugia vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 13% of Perugia's recent games and 47% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Como tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Como in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Como defy the odds to beat Perugia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Perugia 0-1 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 1.14 xG and Como 0.93 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Perugia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Como attack 0.89 / defence 1.43, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 37% | Draw 37% | Como 26%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Como win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 30%, Como 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Como's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.53 PPG, Como 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Como (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.