Palermo 0-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games (1.17 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Serie B appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.17 — Palermo are significantly better at Stadio Renzo Barbera than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol have collected 1.17 PPG across 6 Serie B outings this season: 2W 1D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.17 for Palermo, 1.17 for Sudtirol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 33% versus Sudtirol 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 33% | Sudtirol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.56 xG and Sudtirol 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.012 / defence 1.118 | Sudtirol attack 0.811 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.055. Sudtirol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Palermo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Palermo games / 6 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 52% | Draw 25% | Sudtirol 23%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Sudtirol 4.35. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 33% | Sudtirol 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 52% | Draw 25% | Sudtirol 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Palermo 1.56 / Sudtirol 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.012 / def 1.118 | Sudtirol attack 0.811 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Palermo (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Sudtirol xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Sudtirol kick off?
Palermo vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Palermo 0 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Palermo vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Sudtirol part of?
Palermo vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 52% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Palermo and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palermo and Sudtirol in?
Palermo (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.81x) against Palermo's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
52%
1.94
25%
3.94
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.52
0.96
Sudtirol xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
5%
20.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Palermo and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Palermo and 0.96 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palermo come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 1D 3L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Palermo against 1.17 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Palermo's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Palermo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Sudtirol away?
Palermo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 2.00 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Palermo or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sudtirol?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Sudtirol?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Palermo) and 0% (Sudtirol) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Palermo and 33% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Sudtirol in 33%; Sudtirol in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Palermo's recent matches and 0% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Palermo's recent games and 33% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Palermo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Palermo 0-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.56 xG and Sudtirol 0.96 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palermo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Sudtirol attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 52% | Draw 25% | Sudtirol 23%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Sudtirol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 33%, Sudtirol 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.17 PPG, Sudtirol 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.