Palermo 1-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 20 as Palermo welcome Spezia to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Spezia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Palermo have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Palermo have won 2, Spezia 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Spezia trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 52% versus Spezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 43% | Spezia 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.64 xG and Spezia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.166 / defence 0.745 | Spezia attack 1.006 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.054. Palermo's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Palermo games / 57 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 57% | Draw 25% | Spezia 17%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Spezia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Palermo (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 20% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 57% | Draw 25% | Spezia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Palermo 1.64 / Spezia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.166 / def 0.745 | Spezia attack 1.006 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Palermo (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Spezia xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Spezia kick off?
Palermo vs Spezia kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Spezia?
Palermo 1 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Palermo vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Spezia part of?
Palermo vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 57% chance of winning, Spezia a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Palermo and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Spezia?
Record (5 meetings): Palermo 2W | Draws 2 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Palermo and Spezia in?
Palermo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Spezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palermo's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
57%
1.75
25%
3.93
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.43
0.79
Spezia xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
3%
29.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Palermo and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Palermo and 0.79 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Spezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palermo come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 17D 18L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 1.47 PPG from 58 outings (22W 19D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.48 PPG, Spezia on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Palermo's home form reads 14W 7D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 1.29 points per game from 28 outings (8W 12D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.36 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Spezia in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 23W 17D 18L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Spezia have gone 22W 19D 17L in their last 58 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Spezia away?
Palermo's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.75 PPG; Spezia away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Palermo or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Spezia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Spezia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palermo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Palermo's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Palermo
2
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 3, Spezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Palermo 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Spezia?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 36%, Spezia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Palermo and 32% for Spezia.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Spezia in 43%; Spezia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Palermo's recent matches and 43% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Palermo's recent games and 32% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Spezia tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Spezia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Spezia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Spezia 1-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.64 xG and Spezia 0.79 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.17 / defence 0.74 against Spezia attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 57% | Draw 25% | Spezia 17%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 43%, Spezia 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spezia's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.48 PPG, Spezia 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.