Padova 1-0 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 36%, yet in-form Pescara provide a compelling counter-argument — this Padova vs Pescara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Pescara travel to Stadio Euganeo to take on Padova. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 May 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Padova have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Padova's home record at Stadio Euganeo: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pescara — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pescara have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Pescara's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Padova's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Padova, 0 for Pescara and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Padova winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Padova in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pescara in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 50% versus Pescara 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 39% | Pescara 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.38 xG and Pescara 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.748 / defence 1.107 | Pescara attack 1.127 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.084. Padova's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Padova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Padova games / 36 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 36% | Draw 30% | Pescara 34%. Fair-value odds: Padova 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Pescara 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pescara (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Padova 50% | Pescara 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 36% | Draw 30% | Pescara 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Padova 1.38 / Pescara 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.748 / def 1.107 | Pescara attack 1.127 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Padova (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Pescara xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Pescara kick off?
Padova vs Pescara kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Pescara?
Padova 1 - 0 Pescara.
Where is Padova vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Pescara part of?
Padova vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 36% chance of winning, Pescara a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Padova and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Pescara?
Record (1 meetings): Padova 1W | Draws 0 | Pescara 0W.
What form are Padova and Pescara in?
Padova (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Pescara (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Padova's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Pescara's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Pescara's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
36%
2.81
30%
3.31
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Padova xG
Total xG
2.73
1.35
Pescara xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Padova and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Padova and 1.35 for Pescara, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Pescara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Padova have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 10D 16L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Pescara's form line: 7W 13D 16L from 36 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.11 PPG, Pescara on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L).
On the road, Pescara have gone 2W 7D 9L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Padova are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.39 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Current Season
Pescara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Pescara in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Pescara have gone 7W 13D 16L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Pescara away?
Padova's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.22 PPG; Pescara away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Padova
0
Draws
0
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 2, Pescara have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Padova 1-0 Pescara.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Pescara?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Padova at 61%, Pescara at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Padova) and 72% (Pescara). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Pescara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Padova's games and 72% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Padova's matches and 72% of Pescara's.
Do Padova and Pescara tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pescara in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Padova edge out Pescara 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova beat Pescara 1-0 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 1.38 xG and Pescara 1.35 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pescara landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.75 / defence 1.11 against Pescara attack 1.13 / defence 1.34, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 36% | Draw 30% | Pescara 34%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 39%, Pescara 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Pescara's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.11 PPG, Pescara 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Pescara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.