Padova 2-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Padova vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Modena travel to Stadio Euganeo to take on Padova. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 January 2026, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Padova stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Padova have posted 1W 5D 2L at Stadio Euganeo — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Modena — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Padova 1.10 PPG, Modena 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Padova trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Modena trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 56% versus Modena 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 33% | Modena 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 0.85 xG and Modena 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.810 / defence 1.273 | Modena attack 1.057 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.032. Data: 18 Padova games / 56 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Padova 22% | Draw 29% | Modena 48%. Fair-value odds: Padova 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Modena 2.08. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Padova 75% | Modena 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 22% | Draw 29% | Modena 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Padova 0.85 / Modena 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.810 / def 1.273 | Modena attack 1.057 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Modena (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Modena xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Padova vs Modena kick off?
Padova vs Modena kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 11 January 2026 at Stadio Euganeo.
What was the final score in Padova vs Modena?
Padova 2 - 0 Modena.
Where is Padova vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Modena part of?
Padova vs Modena is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 22% chance of winning, Modena a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Padova and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Padova vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Padova and Modena in?
Padova (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Modena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Padova's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
22%
4.53
29%
3.39
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Padova xG
Total xG
2.24
1.39
Modena xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
6%
18.16
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.8 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Padova and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Padova and 1.39 for Modena, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Padova have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 5W 7D 6L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena's form line: 8W 5D 5L from 18 games, 1.61 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.22 PPG, Modena on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Padova have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (1W 5D 2L).
On the road, Modena have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Padova are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.44 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Modena in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Padova and Modena in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Modena have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.00 PPG; Modena away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Padova or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Padova have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Modena in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Padova and Modena runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Padova
0
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Modena?
From 2 meetings on record, Padova have won 2, Modena have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Modena?
Padova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 75%, Modena 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Padova and 25% for Modena.
On the defensive side: Modena in 38%; Modena in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Padova play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Padova's games and 38% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Padova vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Padova's recent games and 25% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Modena tend to score early?
Padova have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Modena in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Padova cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Padova beat Modena 2-0 at Stadio Euganeo, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Padova 0.85 xG and Modena 1.39 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Padova beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Modena landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Padova attack 0.81 / defence 1.27 against Modena attack 1.06 / defence 0.81, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Padova 22% | Draw 29% | Modena 48%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Padova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Padova 33%, Modena 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Padova's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Modena's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Padova 1.22 PPG, Modena 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Padova win broke the near-deadlock. Padova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.