Cosenza 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cosenza and Venezia meet at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cosenza have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cosenza, 1 for Venezia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Venezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 51% versus Venezia 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 40% | Venezia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.11 xG and Venezia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.913 / defence 0.870 | Venezia attack 0.997 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.010. Data: 73 Cosenza games / 35 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 39% | Draw 34% | Venezia 27%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Venezia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 50% | Venezia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 39% | Draw 34% | Venezia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Cosenza 1.11 / Venezia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.913 / def 0.870 | Venezia attack 0.997 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Venezia xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Venezia kick off?
Cosenza vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Venezia?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Cosenza vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Venezia part of?
Cosenza vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 39% chance of winning, Venezia a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cosenza and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Venezia in?
Cosenza (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Venezia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.00x) against Cosenza's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
39%
2.57
34%
2.91
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.98
0.88
Venezia xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.88 for Venezia, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 18W 22D 33L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 18W 18D 37L from 73 games, 0.99 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Cosenza against 0.99 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.50 PPG from 36 outings (15W 9D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Venezia have gone 9W 8D 19L from 36 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.10 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 60%.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Venezia in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 18W 22D 33L in their last 73 games (1.04 PPG), while Venezia have gone 18W 18D 37L in their last 73 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Venezia away?
Cosenza's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.50 PPG; Venezia away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cosenza
2
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Venezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Cosenza 4-2 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 50%, Venezia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cosenza) and 44% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cosenza have failed to score in 28% of games; Venezia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cosenza's recent matches and 53% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cosenza's recent games and 44% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Venezia tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Venezia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Venezia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.11 xG and Venezia 0.88 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.91 / defence 0.87 against Venezia attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 39% | Draw 34% | Venezia 27%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 40%, Venezia 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.04 PPG, Venezia 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.