Cosenza 0-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 16 as Cosenza welcome Cremonese to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cosenza have posted 4W 1D 2L at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla — 1.86 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cremonese are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 53% versus Cremonese 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 40% | Cremonese 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.07 xG and Cremonese 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.913 / defence 0.972 | Cremonese attack 0.776 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.176. Data: 15 Cosenza games / 15 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 39% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 29%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Cremonese 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 43% | Cremonese 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 39% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Cosenza 1.07 / Cremonese 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.913 / def 0.972 | Cremonese attack 0.776 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cremonese xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Cremonese kick off?
Cosenza vs Cremonese kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Cosenza 0 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Cosenza vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Cremonese part of?
Cosenza vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 39% chance of winning, Cremonese a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cosenza and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Cremonese in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.91x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.10
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.96
0.89
Cremonese xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
10%
10.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.89 for Cremonese, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 3D 8L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese's form line: 6W 5D 4L from 15 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.20 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Cremonese away?
Cosenza's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.86 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cosenza's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
0
Draws
5
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Cremonese have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cremonese 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 43%, Cremonese 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Cosenza) and 43% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 29% of games; Cremonese in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cosenza's recent matches and 43% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Cosenza's recent games and 43% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Cosenza 0-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.07 xG and Cremonese 0.89 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cremonese outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Cremonese attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 39% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 29%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 40%, Cremonese 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.