Monza 1-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monza at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monza vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Monza host Ternana at U-Power Stadium in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 1W 2D 0L from 3 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.67 points per game. Last five: D W D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 0.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Monza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have recorded 0W 0D 3L from 3 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 1.67 PPG ahead (1.67 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Monza trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ternana trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 33% versus Ternana 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Monza 0% | Ternana 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.39 xG and Ternana 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.929 / defence 1.003 | Ternana attack 0.959 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.262. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.388 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Monza games / 3 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 40% | Draw 28% | Ternana 32%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Ternana 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Monza 33% | Ternana 67%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 40% | Draw 28% | Ternana 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Monza 1.39 / Ternana 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.929 / def 1.003 | Ternana attack 0.959 / def 1.388 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Monza (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Ternana xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Ternana kick off?
Monza vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Ternana?
Monza 1 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Monza vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Ternana part of?
Monza vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 40% chance of winning, Ternana a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Monza and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Ternana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Ternana in?
Monza (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.33 | L5 D-W-D. Ternana (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Monza's attack rating (0.93) and Ternana's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.60
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Monza xG
Total xG
2.60
1.21
Ternana xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Monza and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Monza and 1.21 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Monza have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 1W 2D 0L record — D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ternana's form line: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ternana.
The Goals Picture
Monza are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana in 67%.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Early Season
Ternana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Ternana in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Ternana have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Monza or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Ternana in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monza and Ternana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Monza
1
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Ternana?
From 2 meetings on record, Monza have won 1, Ternana have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2022, when Ternana 0-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Ternana?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monza see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 33%, Ternana 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Monza and 67% for Ternana.
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Monza have failed to score in 33% of games; Ternana in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Ternana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Monza's recent matches and 67% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Monza's recent games and 67% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Ternana tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Ternana in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Ternana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Monza and Ternana drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.39 xG and Ternana 1.21 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Ternana attack 0.96 / defence 1.39, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 40% | Draw 28% | Ternana 32%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 0%, Ternana 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Ternana's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ternana conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.