Monza 2-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
U-Power Stadium plays host to Monza versus Pisa in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final. Kick-off: Thursday 26 May 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Monza's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at U-Power Stadium.
Pisa have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pisa away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Monza, 2 for Pisa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 52% versus Pisa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Monza 48% | Pisa 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.70 xG and Pisa 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.300 / defence 0.904 | Pisa attack 0.823 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.077. Monza carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Monza games / 38 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 58% | Draw 25% | Pisa 17%. Fair-value odds: Monza 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Pisa 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Monza (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monza at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Monza 40% | Pisa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Final | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 May 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 58% | Draw 25% | Pisa 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Monza 1.70 / Pisa 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.300 / def 0.904 | Pisa attack 0.823 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Monza (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Pisa xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Pisa kick off?
Monza vs Pisa kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 26 May 2022 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Pisa?
Monza 2 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Monza vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Pisa part of?
Monza vs Pisa is a Promotion Play-offs - Final fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 58% chance of winning, Pisa a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Monza and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 0 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Monza and Pisa in?
Monza (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Pisa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Monza's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.82x) against Monza's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.97
17%
5.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Monza xG
Total xG
2.50
0.80
Pisa xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.95
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
3%
32.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Monza and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Monza and 0.80 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monza's recent record stands at 21W 10D 9L from 40 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 8L across 40 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Monza against 1.75 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Monza have managed 14W 4D 2L from 20 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Monza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pisa's away record stands at 8W 5D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.23 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Monza have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Pisa in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Pisa in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 21W 10D 9L in their last 40 games (1.82 PPG), while Pisa have gone 19W 13D 8L in their last 40 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Pisa away?
Monza's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 2.30 PPG; Pisa away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Monza or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Pisa in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Monza go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Monza
0
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 2, Pisa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2022, when Pisa 3-4 Monza.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 50%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Monza) and 30% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Pisa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Monza's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Monza's recent games and 30% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Pisa tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pisa in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monza edge out Pisa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Pisa 2-1 at U-Power Stadium, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.70 xG and Pisa 0.80 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.30 / defence 0.90 against Pisa attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 58% | Draw 25% | Pisa 17%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 48%, Pisa 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.82 PPG, Pisa 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.