Monza 3-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 30 as Monza welcome Palermo to Brianteo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Monza — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Monza at Brianteo this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Monza) versus 2.30 (Palermo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Monza register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Palermo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Monza, 0 for Palermo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Monza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Monza trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Palermo trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 52% versus Palermo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 49% | Palermo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.41 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.168 / defence 0.911 | Palermo attack 1.144 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.136. Data: 29 Monza games / 67 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 41% | Draw 28% | Palermo 31%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Palermo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Monza 60% | Palermo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Brianteo • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 41% | Draw 28% | Palermo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Monza 1.41 / Palermo 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 1.168 / def 0.911 | Palermo attack 1.144 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Monza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Palermo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Palermo kick off?
Monza vs Palermo kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Brianteo.
What was the final score in Monza vs Palermo?
Monza 3 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Monza vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Brianteo.
What competition is Monza vs Palermo part of?
Monza vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 41% chance of winning, Palermo a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Monza and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 1W | Draws 0 | Palermo 0W.
What form are Monza and Palermo in?
Monza (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Palermo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Monza's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Monza's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.60
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Monza xG
Total xG
2.59
1.18
Palermo xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
8%
13.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Monza and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Monza and 1.18 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Monza have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 21W 15D 31L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Palermo's form line: 30W 19D 18L from 67 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monza.
Venue Form
On home soil, Monza have posted 1.30 PPG from 33 outings (12W 7D 14L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 11W 11D 11L from 33 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Monza are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.51 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Palermo in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 21W 15D 31L in their last 67 games (1.16 PPG), while Palermo have gone 30W 19D 18L in their last 67 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.30 PPG; Palermo away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Monza or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Palermo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Monza
0
Draws
0
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Monza have won 2, Palermo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Monza 3-0 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Palermo?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, Palermo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Monza) and 54% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Monza have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Monza's games and 64% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Monza's recent games and 54% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Palermo tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palermo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monza run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Palermo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Palermo 3-0 at Brianteo, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.41 xG and Palermo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Monza beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 1.17 / defence 0.91 against Palermo attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 41% | Draw 28% | Palermo 31%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 49%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Palermo's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Monza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.