Modena 3-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Modena have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's home record at Stadio Alberto Braglia: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Parma's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Parma have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Parma are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 58% versus Parma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 46% | Parma 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.85 xG and Parma 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.835 / defence 1.043 | Parma attack 1.298 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.211. Parma's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Parma have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Modena games / 59 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 18% | Draw 27% | Parma 55%. Fair-value odds: Modena 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Parma 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Parma (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Parma 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 18% | Draw 27% | Parma 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Modena 0.85 / Parma 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.835 / def 1.043 | Parma attack 1.298 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Parma (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Parma xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Parma kick off?
Modena vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Parma?
Modena 3 - 0 Parma.
Where is Modena vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Parma part of?
Modena vs Parma is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 18% chance of winning, Parma a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Modena 1W | Draws 2 | Parma 0W.
What form are Modena and Parma in?
Modena (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Parma (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Modena's attack rating (0.83) and Parma's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.30x) against Modena's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
18%
5.50
27%
3.70
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Modena xG
Total xG
2.49
1.64
Parma xG
5.50
18%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
4%
28.32
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 13.6 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Modena and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Modena and 1.64 for Parma, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Parma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Modena come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 16D 23L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.78 PPG from 59 outings (30W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Modena — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Modena's home form reads 11W 10D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.62 points per game from 29 outings (13W 8D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.51 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Parma in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 20W 16D 23L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while Parma have gone 30W 15D 14L in their last 59 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.48 PPG; Parma away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Modena or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Parma in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 27 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Modena
2
Draws
0
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Parma have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Modena 3-0 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Parma?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 52%, Parma 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Modena) and 48% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Parma in 34%; Modena have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Modena's recent matches and 48% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Modena's recent games and 48% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Parma tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Parma in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Modena run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Parma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Parma 3-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.85 xG and Parma 1.64 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Parma landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Parma attack 1.30 / defence 0.75, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 18% | Draw 27% | Parma 55%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 46%, Parma 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Modena winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.