Modena 0-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Frosinone at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Frosinone — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Frosinone haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Frosinone's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.37 xG and Frosinone 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Frosinone attack 0.989 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.093. Data: 0 Modena games / 38 Frosinone games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Modena 39% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 33%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Frosinone 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 39% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Modena 1.37 / Frosinone 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Frosinone attack 0.989 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Modena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Frosinone xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Frosinone kick off?
Modena vs Frosinone kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Frosinone?
Modena 0 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Modena vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Frosinone part of?
Modena vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 39% chance of winning, Frosinone a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Modena and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Frosinone in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Frosinone (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.52
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Modena xG
Total xG
2.61
1.24
Frosinone xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
25%
3.92
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Modena and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Modena and 1.24 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Pre-Season
Frosinone
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Frosinone runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Modena's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Modena
3
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Frosinone have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Modena 1-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Modena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Modena 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.37 xG and Frosinone 1.24 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Modena fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Frosinone attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 39% | Draw 28% | Frosinone 33%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.