Modena 5-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Como fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Como make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Modena's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 0D 5L from 8 games (1.12 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Como (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.12 PPG for Modena against 0.90 for Como. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Como half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 50% versus Como 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Como 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.58 xG and Como 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.947 / defence 1.112 | Como attack 1.070 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.096. Como bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Modena games / 46 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 44% | Draw 25% | Como 32%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Como 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 50% | Como 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Como | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 44% | Draw 25% | Como 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Modena 1.58 / Como 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.947 / def 1.112 | Como attack 1.070 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Modena (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Como xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Como kick off?
Modena vs Como kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Como?
Modena 5 - 1 Como.
Where is Modena vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Como part of?
Modena vs Como is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 44% chance of winning, Como a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Como?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Modena and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Como?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Modena and Como in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-0D-5L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Como (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Modena's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Como's attack (1.07x) against Modena's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.07
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Modena xG
Total xG
2.88
1.30
Como xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Como expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Modena and 1.30 for Como, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Como?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Modena have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 3W 0D 5L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Como's form line: 1W 3D 4L from 8 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Modena against 0.75 for Como. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Modena have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Modena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Como have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Como's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.00 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Como
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Como in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 3W 0D 5L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Como have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Como away?
Modena's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 2.00 PPG; Como away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 5-1 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Como — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Modena
1
Draws
2
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Modena have won 1, Como have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Como last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Modena 0-0 Como.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Modena, 67% for Como — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Modena and 67% for Como. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Como in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Como?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Modena's games and 67% of Como's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Modena's matches and 67% of Como's.
Do Modena and Como tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Como in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Modena run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Como.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Como 5-1 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.58 xG and Como 1.30 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Como attack 1.07 / defence 1.32, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 44% | Draw 25% | Como 32%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Como 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Como's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.12 PPG, Como 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Como (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.