Modena 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Modena take on Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Bari at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Modena's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Alberto Braglia. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Modena are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Braglia than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Bari have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bari — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Modena, 1 for Bari and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 1–4 with Bari winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Bari trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 51% versus Bari 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 46% | Bari 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.83 xG and Bari 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.835 / defence 0.910 | Bari attack 1.070 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.010. Data: 35 Modena games / 35 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 28% | Draw 36% | Bari 36%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Bari 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 40% | Bari 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 28% | Draw 36% | Bari 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Modena 0.83 / Bari 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.835 / def 0.910 | Bari attack 1.070 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bari xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Bari kick off?
Modena vs Bari kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Bari?
Modena 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Modena vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Bari part of?
Modena vs Bari is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 28% chance of winning, Bari a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Modena and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Bari?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 0 | Bari 1W.
What form are Modena and Bari in?
Modena (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Bari (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.61
36%
2.76
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Modena xG
Total xG
1.81
0.98
Bari xG
3.61
28%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 16.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Modena and 0.98 for Bari, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 35 games, going 12W 8D 15L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.74 PPG from 35 outings (16W 13D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Bari carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Modena — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 6W 7D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 2.00 points per game from 17 outings (10W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.51 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Bari in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Bari in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 12W 8D 15L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Bari have gone 16W 13D 6L in their last 35 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.47 PPG; Bari away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Modena or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bari in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Bari runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2022, when Bari won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Modena
3
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Bari?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Bari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bari 3-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Bari?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 47%, Bari 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Modena and 35% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bari in 41%; Modena have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Modena's recent matches and 41% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Modena's recent games and 35% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Bari tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bari in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 36, as Modena and Bari drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.83 xG and Bari 0.98 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.83 / defence 0.91 against Bari attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 28% | Draw 36% | Bari 36%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 46%, Bari 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.