Mantova 2-1 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mantova at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Pescara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mantova and Pescara meet at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mantova's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Pescara (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Serie B outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pescara have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Mantova's favour (1.40 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.58 xG and Pescara 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.043 / defence 0.950 | Pescara attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.129. Data: 39 Mantova games / 1 Pescara games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mantova 51% | Draw 29% | Pescara 20%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Pescara 5.00. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 51% | Draw 29% | Pescara 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Mantova 1.58 / Pescara 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.043 / def 0.950 | Pescara attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Mantova (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Pescara xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Pescara kick off?
Mantova vs Pescara kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Pescara?
Mantova 2 - 1 Pescara.
Where is Mantova vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Pescara part of?
Mantova vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 51% chance of winning, Pescara a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mantova and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Pescara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Pescara in?
Mantova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Pescara (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mantova's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Pescara's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Pescara's attack (0.85x) against Mantova's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
51%
1.95
29%
3.49
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.49
0.91
Pescara xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
4%
24.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mantova and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Mantova and 0.91 for Pescara, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Pescara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Mantova have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pescara's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Pescara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Mantova against 0.00 for Pescara. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mantova are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mantova have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Pescara in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Pescara
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Pescara in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Pescara have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mantova
1
Draws
0
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Pescara have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Pescara 2-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Pescara?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Pescara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Mantova's recent matches and 100% of Pescara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Mantova's recent games and 100% of Pescara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Pescara tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Pescara in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Pescara 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Pescara 2-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.58 xG and Pescara 0.91 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Pescara attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 51% | Draw 29% | Pescara 20%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 0%, Pescara 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 0.00 PPG, Pescara 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Pescara conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.