Mantova 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Mantova welcome Palermo to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palermo are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mantova register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Palermo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mantova, 0 for Palermo and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Palermo trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 54% versus Palermo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 50% | Palermo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.15 xG and Palermo 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.928 / defence 1.248 | Palermo attack 1.150 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.035. Data: 56 Mantova games / 56 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 29% | Draw 27% | Palermo 44%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Palermo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palermo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 60% | Palermo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 29% | Draw 27% | Palermo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Mantova 1.15 / Palermo 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.928 / def 1.248 | Palermo attack 1.150 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Palermo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Palermo xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Palermo kick off?
Mantova vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 January 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Palermo?
Mantova 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Mantova vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Palermo part of?
Mantova vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 29% chance of winning, Palermo a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mantova and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Palermo?
Record (2 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 2 | Palermo 0W.
What form are Mantova and Palermo in?
Mantova (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Palermo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Mantova's attack at 0.93x the league average against Palermo's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
29%
3.49
27%
3.68
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.64
1.49
Palermo xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
15.43
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Mantova and 1.49 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova come into this having played 56 games, going 14W 17D 25L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.52 PPG from 56 outings (23W 16D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Mantova — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mantova's home form reads 10W 8D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.30 points per game from 27 outings (9W 8D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Palermo in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 14W 17D 25L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while Palermo have gone 23W 16D 17L in their last 56 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Palermo away?
Mantova's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.41 PPG; Palermo away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Mantova or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Palermo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Palermo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mantova's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mantova
3
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Palermo?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Palermo 2-1 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 48%, Palermo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Mantova) and 56% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mantova have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Mantova's games and 67% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Mantova's recent games and 56% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Palermo tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Palermo in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 19, as Mantova and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.15 xG and Palermo 1.49 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.93 / defence 1.25 against Palermo attack 1.15 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 29% | Draw 27% | Palermo 44%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Palermo 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.