Mantova 2-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 23 as Mantova welcome Bari to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mantova — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's home record at Stadio Danilo Martelli: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Mantova) versus 0.70 (Bari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bari, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Mantova.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Bari winning.
It is worth noting that Bari have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bari in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 57% versus Bari 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 52% | Bari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.43 xG and Bari 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.985 / defence 1.488 | Bari attack 0.841 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.016. Data: 60 Mantova games / 60 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 40% | Draw 27% | Bari 33%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Bari 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 70% | Bari 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 40% | Draw 27% | Bari 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Mantova 1.43 / Bari 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.985 / def 1.488 | Bari attack 0.841 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Mantova (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Bari xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Bari kick off?
Mantova vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Bari?
Mantova 2 - 1 Bari.
Where is Mantova vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Bari part of?
Mantova vs Bari is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 40% chance of winning, Bari a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mantova and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Bari?
Record (3 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 0 | Bari 3W.
What form are Mantova and Bari in?
Mantova (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Bari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.98) and Bari's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.68
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.70
1.27
Bari xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Mantova and 1.27 for Bari, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mantova's recent record stands at 15W 19D 26L from 60 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 14W 26D 20L across 60 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.07 PPG, Bari on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 11W 9D 10L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 4W 13D 13L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 0.98 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Bari in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 15W 19D 26L in their last 60 games (1.07 PPG), while Bari have gone 14W 26D 20L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Bari away?
Mantova's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.40 PPG; Bari away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mantova's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
3
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Bari?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Bari have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Mantova 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 53%, Bari 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mantova) and 40% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Mantova have failed to score in 27% of games; Bari in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Mantova's recent matches and 47% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mantova's recent games and 40% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Bari tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Bari in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mantova edge out Bari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Bari 2-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.43 xG and Bari 1.27 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.98 / defence 1.49 against Bari attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 40% | Draw 27% | Bari 33%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Bari 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bari's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.07 PPG, Bari 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.