Lecco 1-3 Cosenza – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cosenza at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lecco face Cosenza.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi plays host to Lecco versus Cosenza in Serie B (matchday 25). Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Lecco have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Lecco have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Cosenza (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Cosenza's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Lecco against 1.00 for Cosenza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Lecco, 1 for Cosenza and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Lecco 0–3 Cosenza — a Cosenza win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Lecco half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 36% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 58% versus Cosenza 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 58% | Cosenza 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 0.90 xG and Cosenza 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.829 / defence 1.335 | Cosenza attack 0.645 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.198. Cosenza's attack rating of 0.645 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Lecco's defence rating of 1.335 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cosenza's projected output up. Data: built from Lecco's last 24 games and Cosenza's last 62.

Result probabilities: Lecco 29% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 36%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 3.40 | Draw 2.92 | Cosenza 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lecco's last 10 home games and Cosenza's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lecco 50% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 20% (last 10 away games).

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