Lecce 2-1 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lecce at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 18 as Lecce welcome Vicenza Virtus to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 26 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Lecce have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 0L across 9 games at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vicenza Virtus stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Vicenza Virtus have posted 2W 0D 7L from 9 away outings — 0.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game.
Lecce are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Lecce in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 50% versus Vicenza Virtus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 50% | Vicenza Virtus 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 2.08 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 1.436 / defence 1.011 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.721 / defence 1.477. League average goals — home 0.978 / away 1.255. Lecce carry an above-average attack strength of 1.436 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.477 — this is suppressing Lecce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Lecce games / 18 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 63% | Draw 22% | Vicenza Virtus 15%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Vicenza Virtus 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Lecce (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lecce are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lecce 56% | Vicenza Virtus 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 63% | Draw 22% | Vicenza Virtus 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Lecce 2.08 / Vicenza Virtus 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 1.436 / def 1.011 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.721 / def 1.477 | league avg home 0.978 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Lecce (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Vicenza Virtus xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 26 January 2022 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus?
Lecce 2 - 1 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 63% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lecce and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lecce and Vicenza Virtus in?
Lecce (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lecce's attack rating (1.44) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.63
15%
6.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.99
0.91
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
6.71
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
13%
7.97
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
2%
53.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Lecce and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Lecce and 0.91 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lecce's recent record stands at 10W 7D 1L from 18 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vicenza Virtus, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 14L across 18 games — 0.44 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lecce by 1.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vicenza Virtus heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lecce have managed 6W 3D 0L from 9 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vicenza Virtus's away record stands at 2W 0D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lecce come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lecce are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.00 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Defensively: Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Blended
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 10W 7D 1L in their last 18 games (2.06 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 2D 14L in their last 18 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecce at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Lecce's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecce at home: 2.33 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Lecce or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecce and Vicenza Virtus runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lecce
0
Draws
1
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecce have won 1, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 2-1 Lecce.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 56%, Vicenza Virtus 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lecce and 56% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Vicenza Virtus in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lecce's recent matches and 44% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lecce's matches and 56% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Lecce and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Lecce have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lecce edge out Vicenza Virtus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Vicenza Virtus 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 2.08 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.91 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 1.44 / defence 1.01 against Vicenza Virtus attack 0.72 / defence 1.48, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 63% | Draw 22% | Vicenza Virtus 15%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 50%, Vicenza Virtus 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.