Lecce 3-2 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lecce at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecce vs Alessandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Alessandria travel to Stadio Comunale Via del Mare to take on Lecce. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecce stand at 0W 2D 1L from 3 Serie B matches — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L D D. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lecce have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie B games this season, Alessandria have recorded 0W 0D 3L from 3 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Alessandria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lecce carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.67 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.67 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Lecce in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Alessandria in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecce 33% versus Alessandria 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecce 33% | Alessandria 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecce 1.52 xG and Alessandria 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecce attack 0.915 / defence 1.107 | Alessandria attack 0.927 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.262. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Lecce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Lecce games / 3 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecce 42% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 32%. Fair-value odds: Lecce 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Alessandria 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lecce at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Lecce 33% | Alessandria 67%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecce vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecce 42% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Lecce 1.52 / Alessandria 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Lecce attack 0.915 / def 1.107 | Alessandria attack 0.927 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Lecce (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Lecce xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Alessandria xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecce vs Alessandria kick off?
Lecce vs Alessandria kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Lecce vs Alessandria?
Lecce 3 - 2 Alessandria.
Where is Lecce vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Lecce vs Alessandria part of?
Lecce vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecce vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Lecce a 42% chance of winning, Alessandria a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecce vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lecce and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Lecce vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Alessandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lecce and Alessandria in?
Lecce (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-D. Alessandria (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lecce's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Alessandria's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Alessandria's attack versus Lecce's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.79
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Lecce xG
Total xG
2.82
1.30
Alessandria xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
7%
14.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecce vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lecce and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Lecce and 1.30 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecce vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Lecce have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 0W 2D 1L record — L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lecce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alessandria's form line: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Alessandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lecce are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alessandria.
Goals in Recent Form
Lecce are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 1.33 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alessandria in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecce
Early Season
Alessandria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecce and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Lecce have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Lecce or Alessandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecce have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Alessandria in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lecce
1
Draws
0
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecce have won 1, Alessandria have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lecce and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2022, when Alessandria 1-1 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Lecce and Alessandria?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecce see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Alessandria see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecce 33%, Alessandria 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lecce) and 67% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Lecce keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lecce have failed to score in 67% of games; Alessandria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecce home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecce play Alessandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lecce's recent matches and 67% of Alessandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecce vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lecce's recent games and 67% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Lecce edge out Alessandria 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Alessandria 3-2 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecce 1.52 xG and Alessandria 1.30 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lecce beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecce attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Alessandria attack 0.93 / defence 1.55, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecce 42% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 32%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecce 33%, Alessandria 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecce's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Alessandria's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lecce arrived the stronger side — 0.67 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Lecce scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.