Juve Stabia vs Pisa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Romeo Menti this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Pisa haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Pisa have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Juve Stabia. A 1.00 PPG lead over Pisa (1.30 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Juve Stabia 1W, Pisa 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–3 with Pisa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 58% versus Pisa 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 47% | Pisa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.70 xG and Pisa 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.955 / defence 0.962 | Pisa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.071. Data: 38 Juve Stabia games / 0 Pisa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 56% | Draw 26% | Pisa 18%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Pisa 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Juve Stabia (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 70% | Pisa 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 56% | Draw 26% | Pisa 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Juve Stabia 1.70 / Pisa 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.955 / def 0.962 | Pisa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Pisa xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Pisa kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Pisa is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Pisa part of?
Juve Stabia vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 56% chance of winning, Pisa a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Juve Stabia and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 0 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Pisa in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.95x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.85x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.79
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.57
0.88
Pisa xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
3%
30.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.88 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 12W 16D 10L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. Juve Stabia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Pisa's form line: 2W 12D 24L from 38 games, 0.47 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. Pisa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Juve Stabia are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pisa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (8W 8D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pisa have gone 0W 7D 11L from 18 away games — 0.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 0.68 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Pre-Season
Pisa
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Pisa in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 12W 16D 10L in their last 38 games (1.37 PPG), while Pisa have gone 2W 12D 24L in their last 38 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Pisa away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.78 PPG; Pisa away: 0.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Juve Stabia
0
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 1, Pisa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Pisa 3-1 Juve Stabia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 56%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Juve Stabia) and 72% (Pisa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Pisa in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Juve Stabia's matches and 72% of Pisa's.
Do Juve Stabia and Pisa tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Pisa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.