Juve Stabia 1-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's home record at Stadio Romeo Menti: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Modena have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Juve Stabia's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Juve Stabia 1W, Modena 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 51% versus Modena 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 49% | Modena 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 0.93 xG and Modena 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.047 / defence 0.971 | Modena attack 0.952 / defence 0.699. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.101. Modena's defence strength of 0.699 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Juve Stabia games / 63 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 32% | Draw 32% | Modena 36%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Modena 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juve Stabia (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 40% | Modena 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 32% | Draw 32% | Modena 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Juve Stabia 0.93 / Modena 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.047 / def 0.971 | Modena attack 0.952 / def 0.699 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Modena (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Modena xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Modena kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Juve Stabia 1 - 2 Modena.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Modena part of?
Juve Stabia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 32% chance of winning, Modena a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Juve Stabia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Modena?
Record (3 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 2W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Modena in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Modena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.95x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
32%
3.15
32%
3.13
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
1.95
1.02
Modena xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 14.5 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.02 for Modena, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 23W 23D 17L from 63 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 21W 22D 20L across 63 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.35 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 17W 10D 4L from 31 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Modena's away record stands at 9W 11D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.29 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Modena in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 23W 23D 17L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while Modena have gone 21W 22D 20L in their last 63 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Modena away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.97 PPG; Modena away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Modena in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
0
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Modena?
From 5 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Modena have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Modena 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 42%, Modena 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Juve Stabia) and 36% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Modena in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 45% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 36% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Modena tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Modena in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Juve Stabia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Juve Stabia 1-2 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 0.93 xG and Modena 1.02 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Modena outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Modena attack 0.95 / defence 0.70, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 32% | Draw 32% | Modena 36%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Modena 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.46 PPG, Modena 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.