Juve Stabia 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 43%, yet in-form Juve Stabia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juve Stabia vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Juve Stabia welcome Cremonese to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Serie B (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 8 matches, Juve Stabia stand at 4W 2D 2L — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Juve Stabia at home: 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Cremonese — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Juve Stabia are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.55 PPG ahead (1.75 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (last 8 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cremonese trading profile (last 8 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 38% versus Cremonese 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 50% | Cremonese 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.15 xG and Cremonese 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.900 / defence 1.039 | Cremonese attack 1.197 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.189. Data: built from Juve Stabia's last 8 games and Cremonese's last 46.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 28% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 43%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.60 | Draw 3.43 | Cremonese 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Juve Stabia (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Juve Stabia 33% (last 3 home games) | Cremonese 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 28% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Juve Stabia 1.15 / Cremonese 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.900 / def 1.039 | Cremonese attack 1.197 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Cremonese xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Cremonese FAQs
What time does Juve Stabia vs Cremonese kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Cremonese kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Juve Stabia 1 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Cremonese part of?
Juve Stabia vs Cremonese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 9) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 28% chance of winning, Cremonese a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Juve Stabia and Cremonese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Juve Stabia vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Juve Stabia's last 8 games and Cremonese's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
28%
3.60
29%
3.43
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.63
1.48
Cremonese xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
15.78
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juve Stabia vs Cremonese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.48 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 4W 2D 2L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Cremonese's form line: 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.75 PPG, Cremonese on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 3 home games (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.38 PPG overall record — Cremonese travel well.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.38 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese in 62%.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
Juve Stabia (Home) vs Cremonese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juve Stabia
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Juve Stabia vs Cremonese Form FAQs
What form are Juve Stabia and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Cremonese away?
Juve Stabia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 2.00 PPG; Cremonese away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cremonese in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2025, when Cremonese won Cremonese 3-0 Juve Stabia.
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Juve Stabia vs Cremonese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Cremonese?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Juve Stabia have won 2, Cremonese have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Cremonese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Cremonese 0-1 Juve Stabia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Juve Stabia at 33%, Cremonese at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Juve Stabia and 100% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Cremonese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juve Stabia and Cremonese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Juve Stabia's games and 100% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Juve Stabia and Cremonese matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Juve Stabia's matches and 100% of Cremonese's.
Do Juve Stabia and Cremonese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 100% of Cremonese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Juve Stabia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Juve Stabia 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.15 xG and Cremonese 1.48 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 1.04 against Cremonese attack 1.20 / defence 1.02, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 28% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 43%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 50%, Cremonese 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.75 PPG, Cremonese 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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