Juve Stabia 0-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Bari travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Thursday 4 December 2025, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's home record at Stadio Romeo Menti: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bari have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.50 PPG, Bari 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Juve Stabia, 0 for Bari and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bari trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 51% versus Bari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 51% | Bari 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 2.04 xG and Bari 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.996 / defence 0.837 | Bari attack 0.848 / defence 1.482. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.055. Bari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.482 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Juve Stabia games / 51 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 66% | Draw 22% | Bari 12%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Bari 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Juve Stabia (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 40% | Bari 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 66% | Draw 22% | Bari 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Juve Stabia 2.04 / Bari 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.996 / def 0.837 | Bari attack 0.848 / def 1.482 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Bari xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Bari kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Bari kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 4 December 2025 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Bari?
Juve Stabia 0 - 0 Bari.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Bari part of?
Juve Stabia vs Bari is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 66% chance of winning, Bari a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Juve Stabia and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Bari?
Record (2 meetings): Juve Stabia 2W | Draws 0 | Bari 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Bari in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Bari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (1.00) and Bari's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
66%
1.50
22%
4.58
12%
8.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.78
0.75
Bari xG
1.50
66%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
8.53
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
13%
7.66
Win to Nil
31%
3.18
2%
65.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.75 for Bari, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Bari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juve Stabia come into this having played 51 games, going 18W 18D 15L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.20 PPG from 51 outings (13W 22D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.41 PPG, Bari on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juve Stabia's home form reads 14W 7D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bari have taken 0.77 points per game from 26 outings (3W 11D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bari's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.06 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Bari in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 18W 18D 15L in their last 51 games (1.41 PPG), while Bari have gone 13W 22D 16L in their last 51 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Bari away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.88 PPG; Bari away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juve Stabia and Bari runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
0
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Bari?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 3, Bari have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Bari 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Bari?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 46%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Juve Stabia) and 42% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bari in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 42% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Bari tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bari in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juve Stabia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 10, as Juve Stabia and Bari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 2.04 xG and Bari 0.75 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juve Stabia fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.00 / defence 0.84 against Bari attack 0.85 / defence 1.48, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 66% | Draw 22% | Bari 12%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 51%, Bari 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.41 PPG, Bari 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.