Genoa 2-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Palermo travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 February 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 1.70 PPG, Palermo 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Genoa have won 0, Palermo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Palermo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 39% versus Palermo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 30% | Palermo 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.09 xG and Palermo 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.763 / defence 0.764 | Palermo attack 1.084 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.036. Genoa's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Genoa's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Genoa games / 23 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 40% | Draw 32% | Palermo 28%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Palermo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 30% | Palermo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 40% | Draw 32% | Palermo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Genoa 1.09 / Palermo 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.763 / def 0.764 | Palermo attack 1.084 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Genoa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Palermo xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Palermo kick off?
Genoa vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Palermo?
Genoa 2 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Genoa vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Palermo part of?
Genoa vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 40% chance of winning, Palermo a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Genoa and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 0 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Genoa and Palermo in?
Genoa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Palermo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Genoa's attack rating (0.76) and Palermo's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
40%
2.48
32%
3.14
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.95
0.86
Palermo xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Genoa and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Genoa and 0.86 for Palermo, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa's recent record stands at 11W 7D 5L from 23 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 7L across 23 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.74 PPG, Palermo on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 4W 6D 1L from 11 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 3W 4D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Palermo in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 11W 7D 5L in their last 23 games (1.74 PPG), while Palermo have gone 9W 7D 7L in their last 23 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Palermo away?
Genoa's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.64 PPG; Palermo away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Genoa or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Palermo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Genoa
0
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2023, when Genoa 2-0 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 27%, Palermo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 9% for Genoa and 46% for Palermo.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Genoa have failed to score in 36% of games; Palermo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Genoa's recent matches and 54% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 9% of Genoa's recent games and 46% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Palermo tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Palermo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Palermo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Palermo 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.09 xG and Palermo 0.86 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.76 / defence 0.76 against Palermo attack 1.08 / defence 1.22, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 40% | Draw 32% | Palermo 28%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 30%, Palermo 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palermo's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.74 PPG, Palermo 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.