Frosinone 3-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Reggina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Frosinone and Reggina meet at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Frosinone (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Frosinone's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Benito Stirpe this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Frosinone are significantly better at Stadio Benito Stirpe than their overall form suggests.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Reggina have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Frosinone, 0 for Reggina and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2022, ended 3–0 with Frosinone winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Frosinone — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Reggina — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 42% versus Reggina 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 46% | Reggina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.50 xG and Reggina 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.191 / defence 0.821 | Reggina attack 1.131 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 0.982. Data: 72 Frosinone games / 72 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 49% | Draw 29% | Reggina 21%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Reggina 4.76. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 20% | Reggina 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 49% | Draw 29% | Reggina 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Frosinone 1.50 / Reggina 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.191 / def 0.821 | Reggina attack 1.131 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.139 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Reggina xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Reggina kick off?
Frosinone vs Reggina kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Reggina?
Frosinone 3 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Frosinone vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Reggina part of?
Frosinone vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 49% chance of winning, Reggina a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Frosinone and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Reggina?
Record (3 meetings): Frosinone 2W | Draws 1 | Reggina 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Reggina in?
Frosinone (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Reggina (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Reggina's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (1.13x) against Frosinone's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.39
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.41
0.91
Reggina xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
5%
20.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.91 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 35W 21D 16L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Reggina's form line: 28W 13D 31L from 72 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Frosinone against 1.35 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 2.08 PPG from 36 outings (22W 9D 5L).
On the road, Reggina have gone 11W 9D 16L from 36 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.06 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Reggina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Reggina in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 35W 21D 16L in their last 72 games (1.75 PPG), while Reggina have gone 28W 13D 31L in their last 72 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Reggina away?
Frosinone's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.08 PPG; Reggina away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Reggina in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Frosinone have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Frosinone
1
Draws
0
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 3, Reggina have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Frosinone 3-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Reggina?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 36%, Reggina 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Frosinone) and 31% (Reggina).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Reggina in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Frosinone's recent matches and 42% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Frosinone's recent games and 31% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Reggina tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Reggina in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Reggina 3-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.50 xG and Reggina 0.91 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.19 / defence 0.82 against Reggina attack 1.13 / defence 1.10, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 49% | Draw 29% | Reggina 21%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 46%, Reggina 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggina's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.75 PPG, Reggina 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Reggina (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.