Frosinone 0-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Pisa at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Pisa encounter.

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Match Analysis

Frosinone host Pisa at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Frosinone have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, Frosinone have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Pisa stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Pisa have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pisa — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Frosinone, 1 for Pisa and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Frosinone 3–1 Pisa — a Frosinone win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Frosinone trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Pisa trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Frosinone 60% and Pisa 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 60% | Pisa 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Frosinone surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Pisa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 0.90 xG and Pisa 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.617 / defence 1.193 | Pisa attack 1.046 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.158. Frosinone's attack rating of 0.617 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Frosinone's last 9 games and Pisa's last 47.

Result probabilities: Frosinone 21% | Draw 31% | Pisa 48%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 4.67 | Draw 3.23 | Pisa 2.10. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Frosinone 30% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 80% (last 10 away games).

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