Frosinone 0-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 4 as Frosinone welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Benito Stirpe. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Frosinone — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Frosinone's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Benito Stirpe this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 2W 1D 0L from 3 Serie B matches — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Juve Stabia's 2.33 PPG return is 1.23 points per game ahead of Frosinone's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Frosinone in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Frosinone 100% and Juve Stabia 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 67% | Juve Stabia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.11 xG and Juve Stabia 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.925 / defence 1.181 | Juve Stabia attack 0.963 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.098. Data: 3 Frosinone games / 3 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 32% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 38%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Juve Stabia 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 50% | Juve Stabia 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 32% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Frosinone 1.11 / Juve Stabia 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.925 / def 1.181 | Juve Stabia attack 0.963 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Juve Stabia xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Frosinone vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Frosinone 0 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Frosinone vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Juve Stabia part of?
Frosinone vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 32% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Frosinone and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Frosinone and Juve Stabia in?
Frosinone (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Frosinone's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Juve Stabia's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
32%
3.14
30%
3.37
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.36
1.25
Juve Stabia xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.25 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juve Stabia by 1.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Frosinone heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Frosinone have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Juve Stabia in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Frosinone or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Frosinone have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2025, when Frosinone won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Frosinone's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
0
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Juve Stabia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Juve Stabia 0-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Juve Stabia?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Frosinone at 100%, Juve Stabia at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Frosinone) and 33% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 67%; Juve Stabia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Frosinone's games and 33% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Frosinone's recent games and 33% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Frosinone's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 4, as Frosinone and Juve Stabia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.11 xG and Juve Stabia 1.25 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Frosinone fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Juve Stabia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.93 / defence 1.18 against Juve Stabia attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 32% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 38%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 67%, Juve Stabia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Frosinone managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.