Cremonese 3-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cremonese face Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Cremonese's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cremonese's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Sudtirol have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Cremonese against 1.20 for Sudtirol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sudtirol edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Cremonese 4–0 Sudtirol — a Cremonese win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 50% versus Sudtirol 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Sudtirol 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cremonese surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Sudtirol have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sudtirol surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Cremonese recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.43 xG and Sudtirol 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.042 / defence 1.141 | Sudtirol attack 1.087 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.095. Data: built from Cremonese's last 62 games and Sudtirol's last 62.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 34%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.68 | Draw 3.50 | Sudtirol 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cremonese 80% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Cremonese 1.43 / Sudtirol 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.042 / def 1.141 | Sudtirol attack 1.087 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Sudtirol xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cremonese vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Cremonese 3 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Cremonese vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Sudtirol part of?
Cremonese vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 25) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 37% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cremonese and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cremonese vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cremonese's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.09x) against Cremonese's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 62 games and Sudtirol's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.50
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.79
1.36
Sudtirol xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
8%
12.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.36 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 29W 17D 16L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Sudtirol's form line: 19W 15D 28L from 62 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sudtirol.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 30 home games (14W 9D 7L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 8W 7D 15L from their last 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.19 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
Cremonese (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Cremonese vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 29W 17D 16L in their last 62 games (1.68 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 19W 15D 28L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Sudtirol away?
Cremonese's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.70 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Cremonese have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won Sudtirol 0-4 Cremonese on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cremonese
0
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sudtirol?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 2, Sudtirol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2025: Cremonese 3-1 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 53%, Sudtirol 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 53% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Sudtirol matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cremonese's recent matches and 53% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cremonese and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 53% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Cremonese's recent matches and 70% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Sudtirol 3-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.43 xG and Sudtirol 1.36 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Sudtirol attack 1.09 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 37% | Draw 29% | Sudtirol 34%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Sudtirol 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Sudtirol's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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