Cremonese vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Mantova at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Mantova at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremonese have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Mantova have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mantova — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Mantova and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 4–2 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Mantova in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 40% versus Mantova 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 45% | Mantova 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.98 xG and Mantova 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.713 / defence 1.361 | Mantova attack 1.101 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Cremonese games / 40 Mantova games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 20% | Draw 25% | Mantova 55%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Mantova 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Mantova (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mantova as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 40% | Mantova 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 20% | Draw 25% | Mantova 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Cremonese 0.98 / Mantova 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.713 / def 1.361 | Mantova attack 1.101 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Mantova (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Mantova xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Mantova kick off?
Cremonese vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Mantova part of?
Cremonese vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 20% chance of winning, Mantova a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cremonese and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Mantova?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Mantova 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Mantova in?
Cremonese (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Mantova (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.71x the league average against Mantova's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
20%
5.07
25%
3.95
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.75
1.77
Mantova xG
5.07
20%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
3%
29.68
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.77 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Mantova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 8W 10D 22L from 40 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 18L across 40 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mantova by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 3W 7D 10L from 20 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 5W 4D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.25 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Mantova in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 8W 10D 22L in their last 40 games (0.85 PPG), while Mantova have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Mantova away?
Mantova's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.80 PPG; Mantova away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and Mantova runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Mantova?
From 2 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Mantova have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Cremonese 4-2 Mantova.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Mantova 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 55% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 40% of games; Mantova in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 40% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 55% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Mantova tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Mantova in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.