Cremonese vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson rates Cremonese at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Benevento encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Cremonese and Benevento meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Cremonese have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Form favours the hosts. Cremonese's 1.00 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Benevento's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cremonese, 0 for Benevento and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.

Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 33% versus Benevento 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 67% | Benevento 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.49 xG and Benevento 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.968 / defence 1.296 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Cremonese games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cremonese 48% | Draw 26% | Benevento 27%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Benevento 3.70. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 50% | Benevento 67% BTTS from recent games.

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