Cremonese vs Avellino – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avellino at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Avellino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Avellino in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Avellino's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Avellino have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Avellino away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Cremonese against 1.40 for Avellino. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Avellino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 42% versus Avellino 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Avellino 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.16 xG and Avellino 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.823 / defence 1.086 | Avellino attack 0.904 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Data: 7 Cremonese games / 44 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 33% | Draw 30% | Avellino 37%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Avellino 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avellino at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avellino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 50% | Avellino 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 33% | Draw 30% | Avellino 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Cremonese 1.16 / Avellino 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.823 / def 1.086 | Avellino attack 0.904 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Avellino (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Avellino xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Avellino kick off?
Cremonese vs Avellino is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Avellino part of?
Cremonese vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 33% chance of winning, Avellino a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cremonese and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Avellino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Avellino in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Avellino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.82x the league average against Avellino's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Avellino's attack (0.90x) against Cremonese's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 7/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
33%
3.05
30%
3.32
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.40
1.25
Avellino xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.25 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Avellino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cremonese's recent record stands at 9W 13D 23L from 45 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Avellino, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 17L across 45 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Avellino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Avellino by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 4W 8D 10L from 22 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Avellino's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.22 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Avellino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Avellino in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 9W 13D 23L in their last 45 games (0.89 PPG), while Avellino have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Avellino away?
Avellino's away record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.91 PPG; Avellino away: 0.95 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Avellino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 41% (Avellino).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 41% of games; Avellino in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Avellino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 50% of Avellino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 41% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Avellino tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Avellino in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.