Como 2-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia plays host to Como versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 21 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Como (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Como's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Pisa are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Como, 2 for Pisa and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Como half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games).
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 59% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 36% | Pisa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 0.98 xG and Pisa 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.012 / defence 0.943 | Pisa attack 0.958 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.057. Data: 58 Como games / 58 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 34% | Draw 33% | Pisa 33%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Pisa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Como at 34% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pisa (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Como 40% | Pisa 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 34% | Draw 33% | Pisa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Como 0.98 / Pisa 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.012 / def 0.943 | Pisa attack 0.958 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Como (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Pisa xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Pisa kick off?
Como vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Pisa?
Como 2 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Como vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Pisa part of?
Como vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Como a 34% chance of winning, Pisa a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Como and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Como 0W | Draws 1 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Como and Pisa in?
Como (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Como's attack rating (1.01) and Pisa's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.96x) against Como's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
34%
2.92
33%
3.03
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Como xG
Total xG
1.94
0.95
Pisa xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.7 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Como and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Como and 0.95 for Pisa, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Como have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 21D 21L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa's form line: 22W 21D 15L from 58 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Como against 1.50 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Como have posted 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (9W 10D 10L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 8W 11D 10L from 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Como are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.28 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Pisa in coming into this match?
Como have gone 16W 21D 21L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Pisa have gone 22W 21D 15L in their last 58 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Pisa away?
Como's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.28 PPG; Pisa away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Como or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Pisa in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Como go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won 5-0 on 22 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Como
3
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Como have won 3, Pisa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Como and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Como 5-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Como and Pisa?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 52%, Pisa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Como and 31% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Pisa in 31%; Como have failed to score in 28% of games; Pisa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Como's recent matches and 52% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Como's recent games and 31% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Pisa tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Pisa in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Pisa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como and Pisa finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 0.98 xG and Pisa 0.95 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Pisa attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 34% | Draw 33% | Pisa 33%, with Como to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 36%, Pisa 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.19 PPG, Pisa 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Como (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.