Cittadella 0-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cittadella at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cittadella host Modena at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cittadella have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Modena have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cittadella at 1.10 PPG versus Modena's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Cittadella in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Modena in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 36% versus Modena 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 27% | Modena 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.45 xG and Modena 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.841 / defence 0.936 | Modena attack 0.890 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.117. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Cittadella games / 11 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 48% | Draw 28% | Modena 23%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Modena 4.35. Cittadella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cittadella are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cittadella 40% | Modena 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 48% | Draw 28% | Modena 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Cittadella 1.45 / Modena 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.841 / def 0.936 | Modena attack 0.890 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Modena xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Modena kick off?
Cittadella vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Modena?
Cittadella 0 - 0 Modena.
Where is Cittadella vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Modena part of?
Cittadella vs Modena is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 48% chance of winning, Modena a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cittadella and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Modena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cittadella and Modena in?
Cittadella (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Modena (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 0.84x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
48%
2.06
28%
3.55
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.38
0.93
Modena xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.93 for Modena, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Cittadella have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 3W 5D 3L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena's form line: 4W 0D 7L from 11 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cittadella on 1.27 PPG, Modena on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cittadella have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Modena have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Modena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cittadella are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Modena in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 3W 5D 3L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Modena have gone 4W 0D 7L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Modena away?
Cittadella's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.60 PPG; Modena away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Modena in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cittadella and Modena runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cittadella's record when hosting Modena specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cittadella
4
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 1, Modena have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Cittadella 0-2 Modena.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 40%, Modena 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Cittadella) and 60% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 40% of games; Modena in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cittadella's recent matches and 60% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Cittadella's recent games and 60% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Modena tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Modena in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cittadella's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella and Modena finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.45 xG and Modena 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cittadella fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Modena landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against Modena attack 0.89 / defence 1.38, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 48% | Draw 28% | Modena 23%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 27%, Modena 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.27 PPG, Modena 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.