Cittadella 0-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Cittadella take on Benevento.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cittadella and Benevento meet at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Cittadella's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Benevento have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D L D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cittadella, 1 for Benevento and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 1–4 with Benevento winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cittadella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 44% versus Benevento 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 26% | Benevento 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 0.99 xG and Benevento 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.947 / defence 1.140 | Benevento attack 0.825 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 1.170. Data: 23 Cittadella games / 23 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 29% | Draw 37% | Benevento 35%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | Benevento 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cittadella 50% | Benevento 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 29% | Draw 37% | Benevento 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Cittadella 0.99 / Benevento 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.947 / def 1.140 | Benevento attack 0.825 / def 1.095 | league avg home 0.953 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Benevento xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Benevento kick off?
Cittadella vs Benevento kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Benevento?
Cittadella 0 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Cittadella vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Benevento part of?
Cittadella vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 29% chance of winning, Benevento a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cittadella and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Benevento?
Record (1 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 0 | Benevento 1W.
What form are Cittadella and Benevento in?
Cittadella (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Benevento (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (0.95) and Benevento's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.82x) against Cittadella's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.47
37%
2.73
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.09
1.10
Benevento xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.6 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.10 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Cittadella have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 9W 8D 6L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento's form line: 10W 7D 6L from 23 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Cittadella against 1.61 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cittadella have posted 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 4W 4D 3L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cittadella are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.48 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Benevento in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 9W 8D 6L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Benevento have gone 10W 7D 6L in their last 23 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Benevento away?
Cittadella's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.64 PPG; Benevento away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Benevento in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benevento won 4-1 on 21 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cittadella
0
Draws
3
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 1, Benevento have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Cittadella 3-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 46%, Benevento 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Cittadella and 9% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Benevento in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cittadella's recent matches and 46% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cittadella's recent games and 9% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Benevento tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Benevento in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benevento edge out Cittadella 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Cittadella 0-1 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 0.99 xG and Benevento 1.10 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cittadella fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Benevento attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 29% | Draw 37% | Benevento 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Benevento win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 26%, Benevento 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.52 PPG, Benevento 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Benevento (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.