Catanzaro 2-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Catanzaro at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Catanzaro face Ternana.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Catanzaro host Ternana at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Serie B (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 27 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Catanzaro — last 1 games: 0W 1D 0L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Across their last 10 games, Ternana have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ternana have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Catanzaro) versus 0.70 (Ternana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Catanzaro 1.10 xG and Ternana 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Catanzaro attack 0.871 / defence 1.150 | Ternana attack 0.909 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.037. Data: built from Catanzaro's last 1 games and Ternana's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Catanzaro 34% | Draw 32% | Ternana 33%. Fair-value odds: Catanzaro 2.92 | Draw 3.08 | Ternana 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Catanzaro as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Catanzaro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Catanzaro's last 1 games and Ternana's last 10 away games) averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Catanzaro 1 games, Ternana 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Catanzaro vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 2 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Catanzaro 34% | Draw 32% | Ternana 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Catanzaro 1.10 / Ternana 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Catanzaro attack 0.871 / def 1.150 | Ternana attack 0.909 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Catanzaro (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Catanzaro xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ternana xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Catanzaro vs Ternana FAQs
What time does Catanzaro vs Ternana kick off?
Catanzaro vs Ternana kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What was the final score in Catanzaro vs Ternana?
Catanzaro 2 - 1 Ternana.
Where is Catanzaro vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare.
What competition is Catanzaro vs Ternana part of?
Catanzaro vs Ternana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 2) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Catanzaro vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Catanzaro a 34% chance of winning, Ternana a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Catanzaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Catanzaro vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Catanzaro and Ternana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Catanzaro vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Catanzaro's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Catanzaro's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Catanzaro's last 1 games and Ternana's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Catanzaro Win
34%
2.92
32%
3.08
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Catanzaro xG
Total xG
2.19
1.08
Ternana xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Catanzaro vs Ternana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Catanzaro vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Catanzaro and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Catanzaro and 1.08 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Catanzaro vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Catanzaro have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five.
Ternana's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L.
Put side by side, Catanzaro are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ternana.
The Goals Picture
Catanzaro are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Catanzaro have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Ternana in 100%.
Defensively: Catanzaro have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Catanzaro
Early Season
Ternana
Early Season
Catanzaro (Home) vs Ternana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Catanzaro
Early Season
Ternana
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Catanzaro vs Ternana Form FAQs
What form are Catanzaro and Ternana in coming into this match?
Catanzaro have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Ternana have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Catanzaro or Ternana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Catanzaro have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Ternana in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Catanzaro
0
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Catanzaro vs Ternana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Catanzaro and Ternana?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Catanzaro have won 1, Ternana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Catanzaro and Ternana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2024: Ternana 1-0 Catanzaro.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Catanzaro home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Catanzaro vs Ternana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Catanzaro and Ternana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Catanzaro's recent matches and 100% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Catanzaro and Ternana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Catanzaro's recent games and 100% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Catanzaro and Ternana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 0% of Catanzaro's recent matches and 100% of Ternana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Catanzaro edge out Ternana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Catanzaro beat Ternana 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.10 xG and Ternana 1.08 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Catanzaro beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Ternana attack 0.91 / defence 1.07, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 34% | Draw 32% | Ternana 33%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 0%, Ternana 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Catanzaro arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Catanzaro scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 2
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →