Catanzaro 0-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Catanzaro vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Catanzaro host Cremonese at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Catanzaro have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Catanzaro have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cremonese away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Catanzaro have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Catanzaro, 0 for Cremonese and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Catanzaro in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Catanzaro 54% versus Cremonese 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Catanzaro 54% | Cremonese 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Catanzaro 1.33 xG and Cremonese 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Catanzaro attack 1.137 / defence 1.211 | Cremonese attack 0.900 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.222. Data: 33 Catanzaro games / 33 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Catanzaro 35% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 35%. Fair-value odds: Catanzaro 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Cremonese 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Catanzaro 60% | Cremonese 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Catanzaro vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Catanzaro 35% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Catanzaro 1.33 / Cremonese 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Catanzaro attack 1.137 / def 1.211 | Cremonese attack 0.900 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Catanzaro xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Cremonese xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Catanzaro vs Cremonese kick off?
Catanzaro vs Cremonese kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo.
What was the final score in Catanzaro vs Cremonese?
Catanzaro 0 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Catanzaro vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo.
What competition is Catanzaro vs Cremonese part of?
Catanzaro vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Catanzaro vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Catanzaro a 35% chance of winning, Cremonese a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Catanzaro vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Catanzaro and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Catanzaro vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Catanzaro and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Catanzaro 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Catanzaro and Cremonese in?
Catanzaro (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Catanzaro's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Catanzaro's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.33
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Catanzaro xG
Total xG
2.66
1.33
Cremonese xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Catanzaro vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Catanzaro and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Catanzaro and 1.33 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Catanzaro vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Catanzaro's recent record stands at 16W 7D 10L from 33 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 8L across 33 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Catanzaro on 1.67 PPG, Cremonese on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Catanzaro have managed 8W 3D 5L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 10W 3D 3L across 16 trips, a 2.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Catanzaro are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.30 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Cremonese in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Catanzaro
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Catanzaro and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Catanzaro have gone 16W 7D 10L in their last 33 games (1.67 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 17W 8D 8L in their last 33 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Catanzaro at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Catanzaro at home: 1.69 PPG; Cremonese away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Catanzaro or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Catanzaro have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Cremonese in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Catanzaro and Cremonese runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cremonese go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2025, when Cremonese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Catanzaro's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Catanzaro
3
Draws
3
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Catanzaro and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Catanzaro have won 0, Cremonese have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Catanzaro and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Cremonese 4-0 Catanzaro.
Who has won more matches between Catanzaro and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Catanzaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Catanzaro 56%, Cremonese 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Catanzaro) and 56% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Catanzaro keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cremonese in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Catanzaro home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Catanzaro play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Catanzaro's recent matches and 44% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Catanzaro vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Catanzaro's matches and 56% of Cremonese's.
Do Catanzaro and Cremonese tend to score early?
Catanzaro have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Catanzaro's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Catanzaro and Cremonese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Catanzaro 1.33 xG and Cremonese 1.33 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Catanzaro fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Catanzaro attack 1.14 / defence 1.21 against Cremonese attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Catanzaro 35% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 35%, with Catanzaro to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Catanzaro 54%, Cremonese 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Catanzaro's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Catanzaro 1.67 PPG, Cremonese 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Catanzaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.