Cagliari 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 27 as Cagliari welcome Genoa to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 March 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cagliari have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 6W 3D 1L at Unipol Domus — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Cagliari) versus 2.10 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cagliari register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Genoa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cagliari, 2 for Genoa and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Genoa in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 58% versus Genoa 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 45% | Genoa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.38 xG and Genoa 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.062 / defence 1.006 | Genoa attack 0.996 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.015. Data: 26 Cagliari games / 26 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Genoa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cagliari 70% | Genoa 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Cagliari 1.38 / Genoa 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.062 / def 1.006 | Genoa attack 0.996 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Genoa xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Genoa kick off?
Cagliari vs Genoa kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 1 March 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Cagliari 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Cagliari vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Genoa part of?
Cagliari vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 44% chance of winning, Genoa a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cagliari and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Genoa?
Record (3 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Genoa 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Genoa in?
Cagliari (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Genoa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (1.06) and Genoa's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.42
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.40
1.02
Genoa xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
7%
15.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.02 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 15W 22D 27L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 17W 24D 23L from 64 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.05 PPG, Genoa on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.31 PPG from 32 outings (11W 9D 12L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 8W 10D 14L from 32 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.91 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Genoa in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 15W 22D 27L in their last 64 games (1.05 PPG), while Genoa have gone 17W 24D 23L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Genoa away?
Cagliari's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.31 PPG; Genoa away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Genoa in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Genoa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when Genoa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cagliari
5
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Genoa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 69%, Genoa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 47% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Cagliari's games and 47% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cagliari's recent games and 47% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Genoa tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Genoa in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cagliari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Genoa finished level at 0-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.38 xG and Genoa 1.02 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Genoa attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 45%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.05 PPG, Genoa 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.