Brescia 1-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Lecce travel to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to take on Brescia. The game is scheduled for Thursday 28 October 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 5W 2D 2L from 9 Serie B matches — 1.89 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.22 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 2W 1D 1L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 1.75 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lecce — All Games: 4W 4D 1L from 9 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.78 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Brescia 1.89 PPG, Lecce 1.78 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Lecce trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 67% versus Lecce 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 67% | Lecce 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.39 xG and Lecce 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.279 / defence 1.417 | Lecce attack 0.909 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.129. Brescia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 1.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Brescia games / 9 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 34% | Draw 29% | Lecce 37%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Lecce 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 75% | Lecce 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Lecce | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 34% | Draw 29% | Lecce 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Brescia 1.39 / Lecce 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.279 / def 1.417 | Lecce attack 0.909 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Lecce (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Lecce xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Lecce kick off?
Brescia vs Lecce kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Lecce?
Brescia 1 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Brescia vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Lecce part of?
Brescia vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 34% chance of winning, Lecce a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Brescia and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Lecce in?
Brescia (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 2.22 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Lecce (all comps): 4W-4D-1L in 9 | 1.78 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.28x the league average against Lecce's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.44
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.84
1.45
Lecce xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
8%
12.61
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Brescia and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Brescia and 1.45 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia's recent record stands at 5W 2D 2L from 9 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 1L across 9 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.89 PPG, Lecce on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.44 scored and 0.89 conceded. Brescia's scoring rate against Lecce's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Brescia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lecce in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Lecce in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Lecce have gone 4W 4D 1L in their last 9 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Lecce away?
Lecce's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.75 PPG; Lecce away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Brescia or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Lecce in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Lecce runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Brescia
2
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Lecce?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Lecce have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Lecce 1-1 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 75%, Lecce 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Brescia and 50% for Lecce. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecce in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Lecce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Brescia's games and 50% of Lecce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Brescia's matches and 50% of Lecce's.
Do Brescia and Lecce tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lecce in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 10, as Brescia and Lecce drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.39 xG and Lecce 1.45 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.28 / defence 1.42 against Lecce attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 34% | Draw 29% | Lecce 37%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 67%, Lecce 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.89 PPG, Lecce 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.