Benevento vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Mantova travel to Stadio Ciro Vigorito to take on Benevento. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 3W 2D 2L from 7 Serie B matches — 1.57 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benevento's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Stadio Ciro Vigorito this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Benevento 1.57 PPG, Mantova 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benevento register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Mantova in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Mantova trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 57% and Mantova 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 43% | Mantova 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.34 xG and Mantova 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.034 / defence 1.073 | Mantova attack 1.185 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Benevento games / 45 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 31% | Draw 27% | Mantova 42%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Mantova 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 80% | Mantova 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 31% | Draw 27% | Mantova 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Benevento 1.34 / Mantova 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.034 / def 1.073 | Mantova attack 1.185 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Mantova (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Mantova xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Mantova kick off?
Benevento vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Mantova part of?
Benevento vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 31% chance of winning, Mantova a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Benevento and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Mantova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Mantova in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Mantova (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Benevento's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
31%
3.27
27%
3.67
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.95
1.60
Mantova xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
6%
16.23
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Benevento and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Benevento and 1.60 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benevento come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 2D 2L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mantova carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Benevento — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benevento's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Benevento are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L).
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.86 scored and 1.14 conceded. Mantova's attacking output running into Benevento's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Mantova in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Mantova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Mantova in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Mantova have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Mantova away?
Benevento's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.33 PPG; Mantova away: 2.33 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benevento at 67%, Mantova at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Benevento and 67% for Mantova. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Benevento's games and 100% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Benevento's matches and 67% of Mantova's.
Do Benevento and Mantova tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Mantova in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.