Benevento 1-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benevento host Genoa at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.50 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Benevento have won 0, Genoa 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Benevento trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Genoa trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 45% versus Genoa 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 36% | Genoa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 0.82 xG and Genoa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.780 / defence 1.070 | Genoa attack 0.915 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.057. Benevento's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Benevento games / 20 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 27% | Draw 34% | Genoa 39%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Genoa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 40% | Genoa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 27% | Draw 34% | Genoa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Benevento 0.82 / Genoa 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.780 / def 1.070 | Genoa attack 0.915 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Genoa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Genoa xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Genoa kick off?
Benevento vs Genoa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Genoa?
Benevento 1 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Benevento vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Genoa part of?
Benevento vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 27% chance of winning, Genoa a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Benevento and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 1 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Benevento and Genoa in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benevento's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
27%
3.66
34%
2.97
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Benevento xG
Total xG
1.85
1.03
Genoa xG
3.66
27%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 16.2 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Benevento and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Benevento and 1.03 for Genoa, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benevento's recent record stands at 24W 16D 18L from 58 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 14W 22D 22L across 58 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 12W 6D 10L from 28 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 7W 9D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benevento are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.84 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Genoa in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 24W 16D 18L in their last 58 games (1.52 PPG), while Genoa have gone 14W 22D 22L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Genoa away?
Benevento's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.50 PPG; Genoa away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Benevento or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Genoa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benevento and Genoa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Benevento
1
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 0, Genoa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Benevento 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 46%, Genoa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Benevento) and 43% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 32% of games; Genoa in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Benevento's recent matches and 46% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Benevento's recent games and 43% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Genoa tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Genoa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Benevento 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Benevento 1-2 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 0.82 xG and Genoa 1.03 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Genoa attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 27% | Draw 34% | Genoa 39%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 36%, Genoa 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Benevento (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.