Bari 2-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bari have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Comunale San Nicola — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sudtirol (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Bari, 0.80 for Sudtirol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bari 1W, Sudtirol 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2023, ended 1–0 with Bari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 50% versus Sudtirol 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 34% | Sudtirol 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.11 xG and Sudtirol 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.941 / defence 1.050 | Sudtirol attack 0.912 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.152. Data: 53 Bari games / 53 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 34% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 34%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Sudtirol 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 40% | Sudtirol 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 34% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Bari 1.11 / Sudtirol 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.941 / def 1.050 | Sudtirol attack 0.912 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sudtirol xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Sudtirol kick off?
Bari vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Bari 2 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Bari vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Sudtirol part of?
Bari vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 34% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bari and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Bari and Sudtirol in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.94) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.91x) against Bari's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
34%
2.93
32%
3.12
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Bari xG
Total xG
2.21
1.10
Sudtirol xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bari and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bari and 1.10 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Bari have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 21W 23D 12L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sudtirol's form line: 20W 21D 15L from 56 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Bari against 1.45 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (9W 13D 5L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 10W 8D 9L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.05 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 21W 23D 12L in their last 56 games (1.54 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 20W 21D 15L in their last 56 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Sudtirol away?
Bari's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.48 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Bari or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bari
4
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sudtirol?
From 10 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Sudtirol have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 48%, Sudtirol 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Bari and 26% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sudtirol in 44%; Bari have failed to score in 30% of games; Sudtirol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bari's recent matches and 33% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bari's recent games and 26% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Sudtirol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Sudtirol 2-1 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.11 xG and Sudtirol 1.10 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bari beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against Sudtirol attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 34% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 34%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 34%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 34%, Sudtirol 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Sudtirol's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.54 PPG, Sudtirol 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.